Kentucky vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UKTeam statsFLA
- Q4 0:00UKDavonte Robinson 30 Yd Fumble Return27–16
- Q4 3:34FLAFreddie Swain 4 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–16
- Q3 4:11UKLynn Bowden Jr. 54 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Miles Butler Kick)21–10
- Q3 9:49UKTerry Wilson 24 Yd Run (Miles Butler Kick)14–10
- Q2 8:27FLAMoral Stephens 18 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (Evan McPherson Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:03FLAEvan McPherson 29 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 5:07UKDavid Bouvier 29 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Miles Butler Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FLA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UK did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 4.8
- PassTerry Wilson 11/16, 151 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushBenny Snell Jr. 27 CAR, 175 YDS
- RecLynn Bowden Jr. 4 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- PassFeleipe Franks 17/38, 232 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushFeleipe Franks 11 CAR, 44 YDS
- RecKadarius Toney 2 REC, 35 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUK up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:49UK +32%
Terry Wilson run for 24 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)
- Q4 3:29UK +26%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 34
- Q3 4:11UK +24%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 54 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)
- Q2 8:27FLA +21%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Moral Stephens for 18 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
- Q1 5:07UK +20%
Terry Wilson pass complete to David Bouvier for 29 yds for a TD (Miles Butler KICK)
- Q4 3:34FLA +18%
Feleipe Franks pass complete to Freddie Swain for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
FAQ
What was the final score of Kentucky vs. Florida?
Kentucky 27, Florida 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UK | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 454 | Total yards | 360 |
| 151 | Passing yards | 232 |
| 303 | Rushing yards | 128 |
| 20 | First downs | 24 |
| 9-13 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 11/16 | Comp/Att | 17/38 |
| 9.4 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 7.4 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 12-114 | Penalties | 6-55 |
| 31:10 | Possession | 28:50 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:15 FLA punt on 4th & 2 at UK 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.03 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00UKDavonte Robinson 30 Yd Fumble Return27–16
- Q4 3:34FLAFreddie Swain 4 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–16
- Q3 4:11UKLynn Bowden Jr. 54 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Miles Butler Kick)21–10
- Q3 9:49UKTerry Wilson 24 Yd Run (Miles Butler Kick)14–10
- Q2 8:27FLAMoral Stephens 18 Yd pass from Feleipe Franks (Evan McPherson Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:03FLAEvan McPherson 29 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 5:07UKDavid Bouvier 29 Yd pass from Terry Wilson (Miles Butler Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1531, UK Elo 1482 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA -4.4 (63% to win) — 9.1 points clear of UK's market line of -13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#52 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #22 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #60 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →Florida leads 54–22 · 33% have been one-possession games
| UK | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.7 (#31) | CORE overall | +17.3 (#14) |
| +3 / -7 | offense / defense | +9 / -8 |
| 2.02 | points / drive | 2.43 |
| 1.44 | allowed / drive | 1.56 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →