BYU vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BYUTeam statsWIS
- Q4 9:58BYUSkyler Southam 45 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q4 12:43WISTaiwan Deal 5 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)21–21
- Q3 9:54BYUSqually Canada 2 Yd Run (Skyler Southam Kick)21–14
- Q2 1:17WISAlec Ingold 2 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)14–14
- Q2 12:17BYUMoroni Laulu-Pututau 31 Yd pass from Aleva Hifo (Skyler Southam Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:02BYUSqually Canada 3 Yd Run (Skyler Southam Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:12WISTaiwan Deal 2 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTanner Mangum 12/22, 89 YDS
- RushSqually Canada 11 CAR, 118 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMoroni Laulu-Pututau 3 REC, 33 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAlex Hornibrook 18/28, 190 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJonathan Taylor 26 CAR, 117 YDS
- RecJake Ferguson 3 REC, 61 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBYU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:15BYU +42%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 21
- Q4 12:43WIS +32%
Taiwan Deal run for 5 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
- Q3 9:54BYU +24%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds for a TD, (Skyler Southam KICK)
- Q4 6:00BYU +24%
Canada, Squally rush for 2 yards to the BYU34, PENALTY WISCONSIN offside (Lyles, Kayden) 5 yards to the BYU37, NO PLAY
- Q4 0:36BYU +23%
Rafael Gaglianone 42 yd FG MISSED
- Q4 9:58BYU +21%
Skyler Southam 45 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of BYU vs. Wisconsin?
BYU 24, Wisconsin 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BYU | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 311 | Total yards | 394 |
| 120 | Passing yards | 190 |
| 191 | Rushing yards | 204 |
| 14 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-9 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 13/23 | Comp/Att | 18/28 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 6.8 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-36 | Penalties | 6-33 |
| 25:40 | Possession | 34:20 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:00 WIS punt on 4th & 1 at WIS 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:58BYUSkyler Southam 45 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q4 12:43WISTaiwan Deal 5 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)21–21
- Q3 9:54BYUSqually Canada 2 Yd Run (Skyler Southam Kick)21–14
- Q2 1:17WISAlec Ingold 2 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)14–14
- Q2 12:17BYUMoroni Laulu-Pututau 31 Yd pass from Aleva Hifo (Skyler Southam Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:02BYUSqually Canada 3 Yd Run (Skyler Southam Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:12WISTaiwan Deal 2 Yd Run (Rafael Gaglianone Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WIS Elo 1902, BYU Elo 1416 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WIS -21.8 (92% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#46 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #4 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #2 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →| BYU | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.4 (#49) | CORE overall | +15.0 (#18) |
| -1 / -5 | offense / defense | +11 / -4 |
| 2.16 | points / drive | 2.42 |
| 1.83 | allowed / drive | 1.87 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →