#12Alex Hornibrook

QB·Wisconsin·20179.6 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Alex Hornibrook is a Clutch Passer for Wisconsin. Alex's 2017 season ranks in the 83th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 344 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Alex Hornibrook's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

198/318 Comp/Att2644 Pass yards25 Pass TD15 INT62.3% Comp %

Rushing

-101 Rush yards0 Rush TD29 Carries-3.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency83
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency73
Clutch81

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)83th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (83th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.27 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.16 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs BYU (SP+ -7).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsUtah State	W59-10	-3.3	15/23	244	3	0	75.2	-20	0	0.67
2	vsFlorida Atlantic	W31-14	5.1	16/28	201	1	1	66.5	—	—	0.41
3	@BYU	W40-6	-7.4	18/19	256	4	0	98.2	-11	0	1.16
5	vsNorthwestern	W33-24	11.2	11/20	197	1	2	49.4	-9	0	0.31
6	@Nebraska	W38-17	2.5	9/17	113	1	1	30.8	-6	0	0.02
7	vsPurdue	W17-9	5.8	13/18	199	1	2	70.1	-3	0	0.70
8	vsMaryland	W38-13	-4.5	16/24	225	2	1	87.5	-2	0	0.66
9	@Illinois	W24-10	-7.4	10/19	135	0	1	25.5	-10	0	0.18
10	@Indiana	W45-17	10.2	13/20	158	2	1	—	-9	0	0.26
11	vsIowa	W38-14	9.8	11/18	135	2	3	23.7	-8	0	-0.29
12	vsMichigan	W24-10	19.6	9/19	143	1	1	37.5	-8	0	0.17
13	@Minnesota	W31-0	0.4	15/19	151	3	0	95.0	—	—	0.89
14	vsOhio State	L21-27	30.9	19/40	229	0	2	28.0	-8	0	0.10
1	@Miami	W34-24	17.4	23/34	258	4	0	90.2	-7	0	0.71

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

36.0%

Passing plays

98.3%

Rushing plays

1.5%

Standard downs

23.5%

Passing downs

68.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.49
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.42 / -0.60

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.