UL Monroe vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULMTeam statsGAST
- Q4 5:23GASTRogier Ten Lohuis 30 Yd Field Goal 37–23
- Q4 9:14ULMThomas Koufie 1 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)37–20
- Q3 1:48ULMThomas Koufie 1 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)30–20
- Q3 6:23ULMThomas Koufie 1 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)23–20
- Q3 10:43GASTJawan Nobles 61 Yd pass from Conner Manning (Rogier Ten Lohuis Kick)16–20
- Q3 11:56ULMThomas Koufie 18 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)16–13
- Q3 13:49GASTRobert Davis 58 Yd pass from Conner Manning (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)9–13
- Q2 1:24GASTGlenn Smith 31 Yd pass from Conner Manning (Rogier Ten Lohuis Kick)9–7
- Q2 5:59ULMThomas Koufie 3 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)9–0
- Q1 10:02ULMTeam Safety 2–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GAST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassCaleb Evans 17/31, 193 YDS
- RushThomas Koufie 31 CAR, 201 YDS, 5 TD
- RecAjalen Holley 6 REC, 77 YDS
- PassConner Manning 19/30, 422 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDarius Stubbs 6 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecGlenn Smith 4 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsULM up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 1:48ULM +33%
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
- Q2 5:59ULM +27%
Thomas Koufie run for 3 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
- Q3 6:23ULM +26%
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
- Q3 11:56ULM +21%
Thomas Koufie run for 18 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
- Q2 1:24GAST +19%
Conner Manning pass complete to Glenn Smith for 31 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)
- Q3 10:43GAST +18%
Conner Manning pass complete to Jawan Nobles for 61 yds for a TD, (Rogier Ten Lohuis KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of UL Monroe vs. Georgia State?
UL Monroe 37, Georgia State 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked GAST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ULM | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 457 | Total yards | 464 |
| 193 | Passing yards | 422 |
| 264 | Rushing yards | 42 |
| 31 | First downs | 16 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 17/31 | Comp/Att | 19/30 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 14.1 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 1.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 6-47 |
| 35:17 | Possession | 24:43 |
Costliest call
Q2 15:00 GAST punt on 4th & 3 at ULM 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.72 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:23GASTRogier Ten Lohuis 30 Yd Field Goal 37–23
- Q4 9:14ULMThomas Koufie 1 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)37–20
- Q3 1:48ULMThomas Koufie 1 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)30–20
- Q3 6:23ULMThomas Koufie 1 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)23–20
- Q3 10:43GASTJawan Nobles 61 Yd pass from Conner Manning (Rogier Ten Lohuis Kick)16–20
- Q3 11:56ULMThomas Koufie 18 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)16–13
- Q3 13:49GASTRobert Davis 58 Yd pass from Conner Manning (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)9–13
- Q2 1:24GASTGlenn Smith 31 Yd pass from Conner Manning (Rogier Ten Lohuis Kick)9–7
- Q2 5:59ULMThomas Koufie 3 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)9–0
- Q1 10:02ULMTeam Safety 2–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1290, ULM Elo 935 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST -16.6 (86% to win) — 4.1 points clear of GAST's market line of -12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#45 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #46 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →The series is level at 4–4 · 13% have been one-possession games
| ULM | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| -26.1 (#126) | CORE overall | -9.4 (#95) |
| -9 / +17 | offense / defense | -7 / +2 |
| 1.61 | points / drive | 1.45 |
| 3.13 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →