San Diego State vs. South Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SDSUTeam statsUSA
- Q4 4:17USADevon Earl 80 Yd Fumble Return (Gavin Patterson Kick)24–42
- Q4 8:02USADami Ayoola 1 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)24–35
- Q4 11:58USAJosh Magee 20 Yd pass from Cole Garvin (Gavin Patterson Kick)24–28
- Q3 3:06SDSUKahale Warring 12 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (Christian Chapman Pass to David Wells for Two-Point Conversion)24–21
- Q3 14:08USAGerald Everett 79 Yd pass from Cole Garvin (Gavin Patterson Kick)16–21
- Q2 0:05SDSUJohn Baron II 34 Yd Field Goal 16–14
- Q2 9:45SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 7 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)13–14
- Q1 1:46USAKevin Kutchera 37 Yd pass from Cole Garvin (Gavin Patterson Kick)6–14
- Q1 6:03SDSURashaad Penny 15 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)6–7
- Q1 10:38USATyreis Thomas 12 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassChristian Chapman 13/22, 159 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDonnel Pumphrey 25 CAR, 151 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMikah Holder 2 REC, 48 YDS
- PassCole Garvin 16/21, 242 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushTyreis Thomas 11 CAR, 33 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGerald Everett 5 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:58USA +38%
Josh Magee 20 Yd pass from Cole Garvin (Gavin Patterson Kick)
- Q3 3:06SDSU +29%
Kahale Warring 12 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (Christian Chapman Pass to David Wells for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 8:02USA +27%
Dami Ayoola 1 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)
- Q3 14:08USA +23%
Gerald Everett 79 Yd pass from Cole Garvin (Gavin Patterson Kick)
- Q4 8:45USA +20%
Dami Ayoola run for 2 yds to the SDSt 1
- Q2 9:45SDSU +18%
Donnel Pumphrey 7 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. South Alabama?
San Diego State 24, South Alabama 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SDSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SDSU | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 316 | Total yards | 331 |
| 159 | Passing yards | 242 |
| 157 | Rushing yards | 89 |
| 20 | First downs | 18 |
| 2-10 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 13/22 | Comp/Att | 16/21 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 11.5 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 2.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-85 | Penalties | 10-93 |
| 26:43 | Possession | 33:17 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:41 USA punt on 4th & 2 at USA 23. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.21 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:17USADevon Earl 80 Yd Fumble Return (Gavin Patterson Kick)24–42
- Q4 8:02USADami Ayoola 1 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)24–35
- Q4 11:58USAJosh Magee 20 Yd pass from Cole Garvin (Gavin Patterson Kick)24–28
- Q3 3:06SDSUKahale Warring 12 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (Christian Chapman Pass to David Wells for Two-Point Conversion)24–21
- Q3 14:08USAGerald Everett 79 Yd pass from Cole Garvin (Gavin Patterson Kick)16–21
- Q2 0:05SDSUJohn Baron II 34 Yd Field Goal 16–14
- Q2 9:45SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 7 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)13–14
- Q1 1:46USAKevin Kutchera 37 Yd pass from Cole Garvin (Gavin Patterson Kick)6–14
- Q1 6:03SDSURashaad Penny 15 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)6–7
- Q1 10:38USATyreis Thomas 12 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USA Elo 1260, SDSU Elo 1706 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USA +15.4 (17% to win) — 2.6 points clear of USA's market line of +18. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#18 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #16 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds · #38 of 61 in 2016 by biggest poll gap.
The 2016 upset archive →| SDSU | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.9 (#15) | CORE overall | -15.6 (#109) |
| +2 / -13 | offense / defense | -4 / +12 |
| 2.72 | points / drive | 2.01 |
| 1.36 | allowed / drive | 2.33 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -15 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →