Hawai'i vs. Air Force: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsAF
- 2OT 0:00HAWMarcus Kemp 25 Yd pass from Dru Brown (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)34–27
- OT 0:00AFN. Romine run for 5 yds for a TD, (L. Strebel KICK)27–27
- OT 0:00HAWMarcus Kemp 13 Yd pass from Dru Brown (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)27–27
- Q4 11:51HAWJohn Ursua 40 Yd pass from Dru Brown (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)20–20
- Q4 13:33AFShayne Davern 2 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)13–20
- Q3 2:02HAWRigoberto Sanchez 35 Yd Field Goal 13–13
- Q3 9:17AFLuke Strebel 42 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q3 12:40AFLuke Strebel 47 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 0:07HAWSteven Lakalaka 1 Yd Run (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)10–7
- Q2 11:29HAWRigoberto Sanchez 25 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 7:27AFTimothy McVey 6 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- HAW played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 4.9
- PassDru Brown 21/37, 312 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushPaul Harris 8 CAR, 40 YDS
- RecMarcus Kemp 6 REC, 151 YDS, 2 TD
- PassNate Romine 1/10, 20 YDS, 1 INT
- RushShayne Davern 24 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRyan Reffitt 1 REC, 20 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHAW up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- 2OT 0:00HAW +32%
Marcus Kemp 25 Yd pass from Dru Brown (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)
- Q4 13:33AF +29%
Shayne Davern 2 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)
- Q4 0:00AF +25%
Luke Strebel 32 yd FG MISSED
- Q4 8:18HAW +25%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the Hawa 30
- OT 0:00HAW +21%
N. Romine run for 5 yds for a TD, (L. Strebel KICK)
- Q3 15:00HAW +21%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the Hawa 27
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. Air Force?
Hawai'i 34, Air Force 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked AF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HAW | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 387 | Total yards | 409 |
| 312 | Passing yards | 20 |
| 75 | Rushing yards | 389 |
| 19 | First downs | 27 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 12-22 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 21/37 | Comp/Att | 1/10 |
| 8.4 | Yards per pass | 2.0 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-46 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 25:18 | Possession | 34:42 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:21 AF go for it on 4th & 22 at AF 18. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.47 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- 2OT 0:00HAWMarcus Kemp 25 Yd pass from Dru Brown (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)34–27
- OT 0:00AFN. Romine run for 5 yds for a TD, (L. Strebel KICK)27–27
- OT 0:00HAWMarcus Kemp 13 Yd pass from Dru Brown (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)27–27
- Q4 11:51HAWJohn Ursua 40 Yd pass from Dru Brown (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)20–20
- Q4 13:33AFShayne Davern 2 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)13–20
- Q3 2:02HAWRigoberto Sanchez 35 Yd Field Goal 13–13
- Q3 9:17AFLuke Strebel 42 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q3 12:40AFLuke Strebel 47 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 0:07HAWSteven Lakalaka 1 Yd Run (Rigoberto Sanchez Kick)10–7
- Q2 11:29HAWRigoberto Sanchez 25 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 7:27AFTimothy McVey 6 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1571, HAW Elo 1169 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF -18.5 (88% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#50 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #18 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Air Force leads 14–9–1 · Hawai'i has won 2 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| HAW | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.7 (#99) | CORE overall | +4.6 (#48) |
| -6 / +6 | offense / defense | +0 / -4 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 2.88 |
| 2.95 | allowed / drive | 2.00 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -25 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →