Arkansas vs. LSU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARKTeam statsLSU
- Q4 10:18ARKJared Cornelius 69 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)31–14
- Q3 5:33ARKCole Hedlund 25 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q3 11:10LSULeonard Fournette 2 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)21–14
- Q2 0:24LSUMalachi Dupre 5 Yd pass from Brandon Harris (Trent Domingue Kick)21–7
- Q2 3:55ARKAlex Collins 5 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)21–0
- Q2 14:42ARKAlex Collins 80 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:06ARKDominique Reed 52 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARK did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.3 vs 3rd & 5.2
- PassBrandon Allen 9/16, 141 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAlex Collins 16 CAR, 141 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDominique Reed 3 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrandon Harris 21/35, 271 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushLeonard Fournette 19 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMalachi Dupre 8 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARK up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:10LSU +20%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)
- Q2 14:42ARK +19%
Alex Collins run for 80 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)
- Q1 8:06ARK +19%
Brandon Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 52 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)
- Q3 5:33ARK +14%
Cole Hedlund 25 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:24LSU +13%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 5 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)
- Q3 6:11ARK +12%
Alex Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 8
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas vs. LSU?
Arkansas 31, LSU 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARK | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 440 | Total yards | 330 |
| 141 | Passing yards | 271 |
| 299 | Rushing yards | 59 |
| 17 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 9/16 | Comp/Att | 21/35 |
| 8.8 | Yards per pass | 7.7 |
| 7.5 | Yards per rush | 2.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 7-46 |
| 29:43 | Possession | 30:17 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:56 LSU go for it on 4th & 20 at LSU 33. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.36 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:18ARKJared Cornelius 69 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)31–14
- Q3 5:33ARKCole Hedlund 25 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q3 11:10LSULeonard Fournette 2 Yd Run (Trent Domingue Kick)21–14
- Q2 0:24LSUMalachi Dupre 5 Yd pass from Brandon Harris (Trent Domingue Kick)21–7
- Q2 3:55ARKAlex Collins 5 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)21–0
- Q2 14:42ARKAlex Collins 80 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:06ARKDominique Reed 52 Yd pass from Brandon Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LSU Elo 1855, ARK Elo 1732 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LSU -7.3 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#29 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #44 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #7 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →LSU leads 45–23–2 · LSU has won 4 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| ARK | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.4 (#13) | CORE overall | +22.4 (#7) |
| +20 / +2 | offense / defense | +13 / -10 |
| 3.16 | points / drive | 2.69 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 1.91 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →