Baylor vs. West Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BAYTeam statsWVU
- Q4 7:35WVUMario Alford 39 Yd pass from Clint Trickett (Josh Lambert Kick)27–41
- Q4 11:36WVUKevin White 12 Yd pass from Clint Trickett (Josh Lambert Kick)27–34
- Q3 0:38BAYShock Linwood 1 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)27–27
- Q3 9:28WVUJosh Lambert 24 Yd Field Goal 20–27
- Q2 0:00WVUJosh Lambert 54 Yd Field Goal 20–24
- Q2 4:21WVUDreamius Smith 9 Yd Run (Josh Lambert Kick)20–21
- Q2 8:25BAYAntwan Goodley 63 Yd pass from Bryce Petty (Chris Callahan Kick)20–14
- Q2 10:56WVUAndrew Buie 1 Yd Run (Josh Lambert Kick)13–14
- Q1 2:33BAYChris Callahan 34 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q1 6:29BAYChris Callahan 38 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 12:02WVUKevin White 36 Yd pass from Clint Trickett (Josh Lambert Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:01BAYCorey Coleman 7 Yd pass from Bryce Petty (Chris Callahan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBryce Petty 16/36, 223 YDS, 2 TD
- RushShock Linwood 21 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAntwan Goodley 9 REC, 132 YDS, 1 TD
- PassClint Trickett 23/35, 322 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushWendell Smallwood 20 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecKevin White 8 REC, 132 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:36WVU +38%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Kevin White for 12 yds for a TD BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Xavien Howard) declined, (Josh Lambert KICK)
- Q3 0:38BAY +30%
Shock Linwood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
- Q4 7:35WVU +16%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Mario Alford for 39 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)
- Q4 9:30WVU +16%
Clint Trickett pass complete to Mario Alford for 7 yds to the WVirg 32 for a 1ST down
- Q2 4:21WVU +14%
Dreamius Smith run for 9 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambert KICK)
- Q3 9:28WVU +13%
Josh Lambert 24 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Baylor vs. West Virginia?
Baylor 27, West Virginia 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BAY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BAY | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| 318 | Total yards | 456 |
| 223 | Passing yards | 322 |
| 95 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 22 | First downs | 33 |
| 3-16 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 16/37 | Comp/Att | 23/35 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 9.2 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 18-215 | Penalties | 14-138 |
| 28:42 | Possession | 30:23 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:40 BAY go for it on 4th & 7 at WVU 26. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:35WVUMario Alford 39 Yd pass from Clint Trickett (Josh Lambert Kick)27–41
- Q4 11:36WVUKevin White 12 Yd pass from Clint Trickett (Josh Lambert Kick)27–34
- Q3 0:38BAYShock Linwood 1 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)27–27
- Q3 9:28WVUJosh Lambert 24 Yd Field Goal 20–27
- Q2 0:00WVUJosh Lambert 54 Yd Field Goal 20–24
- Q2 4:21WVUDreamius Smith 9 Yd Run (Josh Lambert Kick)20–21
- Q2 8:25BAYAntwan Goodley 63 Yd pass from Bryce Petty (Chris Callahan Kick)20–14
- Q2 10:56WVUAndrew Buie 1 Yd Run (Josh Lambert Kick)13–14
- Q1 2:33BAYChris Callahan 34 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q1 6:29BAYChris Callahan 38 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 12:02WVUKevin White 36 Yd pass from Clint Trickett (Josh Lambert Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:01BAYCorey Coleman 7 Yd pass from Bryce Petty (Chris Callahan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WVU Elo 1505, BAY Elo 2011 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WVU +17.8 (13% to win) — 9.3 points clear of BAY's market line of +8.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#58 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #48 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →West Virginia leads 8–5 · 54% have been one-possession games
| BAY | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.35 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 1.94 | allowed / drive | 1.79 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 25% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →