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Watchlist

Week 4 of 2026, ranked by a score whose parts are all shown. No term rewards a program for being famous — if a Tuesday MAC game outranks the night game, that is the answer.

Week01234567891011121315

The five

  1. 1
    #6Oregonat#14USC
    Time TBDLos Angeles Memorial Coliseummodel USC by 0.2market +5.5
    • Projected closeness 34/35
    • Team quality 28/30
    • Stakes 15/15
    • History 4/10
    81
    score
  2. 2
    South Carolinaat#12Alabama
    Time TBDBryant-Denny Stadiummodel Alabama by 1.2
    • Projected closeness 31/35
    • Team quality 26/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    69
    score
  3. 3
    #10Texas A&Mat#8LSUTexas A&M-LSU
    Time TBDTiger Stadium (LA)model Texas A&M by 7.2market -3
    • Projected closeness 17/35
    • Team quality 27/30
    • Stakes 15/15
    • History 9/10
    • Points on the board 1/10
    69
    score
  4. 4
    VanderbiltatAuburn
    Time TBDJordan-Hare Stadiummodel Vanderbilt by 2.0
    • Projected closeness 29/35
    • Team quality 24/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    63
    score
  5. 5
    #21IowaatMichigan
    Time TBDMichigan Stadiummodel Michigan by 4.6
    • Projected closeness 22/35
    • Team quality 26/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    61
    score

The rest of the slate

  1. 6
    #11Oklahomaat#2Georgia
    Time TBDSanford Stadiummodel Georgia by 7.3market -10
    • Projected closeness 17/35
    • Team quality 27/30
    • Stakes 15/15
    • Points on the board 1/10
    60
    score
  2. 7
    TCUatUCF
    Time TBDFBC Mortgage Stadiummodel TCU by 0.2
    • Projected closeness 34/35
    • Team quality 16/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    56
    score
  3. 8
    Georgia TechatStanford
    Sat, Sep 26 · 10:30 PM ETStanford Stadiummodel Georgia Tech by 0.4
    • Projected closeness 34/35
    • Team quality 11/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 5/10
    53
    score
  4. 9
    #4Texasat#18Tennessee
    Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ETNeyland Stadiummodel Texas by 13.5market +6.5
    • Projected closeness 9/35
    • Team quality 26/30
    • Stakes 15/15
    • Points on the board 2/10
    52
    score
  5. 10
    Minnesotaat#19Washington
    Time TBDHusky Stadiummodel Washington by 4.6
    • Projected closeness 22/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    52
    score
  6. 11
    James MadisonatOld Dominion
    Time TBDS.B. Ballard Stadiummodel James Madison by 0.7
    • Projected closeness 33/35
    • Team quality 13/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    52
    score
  7. 12
    UCLAatMaryland
    Time TBDSECU Stadiummodel Maryland by 0.9
    • Projected closeness 32/35
    • Team quality 12/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    50
    score
  8. 13
    Boise StateatWestern Michigan
    Time TBDWaldo Stadiummodel Boise State by 2.6
    • Projected closeness 27/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    50
    score
  9. 14
    Southern MissatTulane
    Time TBDYulman Stadiummodel Tulane by 0.8
    • Projected closeness 32/35
    • Team quality 10/30
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    49
    score
  10. 15
    Wisconsinat#16Penn State
    Time TBDBeaver Stadiummodel Penn State by 8.3
    • Projected closeness 15/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    49
    score
  11. 16
    Illinoisat#1Ohio StateIllibuck
    Time TBDOhio Stadiummodel Ohio State by 25.5
    • Projected closeness 3/35
    • Team quality 24/30
    • Stakes 9/15
    • History 8/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    47
    score
  12. 17
    Wake Forestat#24Louisville
    Time TBDL&N Federal Credit Union Stadiummodel Louisville by 8.1
    • Projected closeness 16/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    46
    score
  13. 18
    Kansas StateatCincinnati
    Time TBDNippert Stadiummodel Kansas State by 5.2
    • Projected closeness 21/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    46
    score
  14. 19
    #9Ole MissatFlorida
    Time TBDBen Hill Griffin Stadiummodel Ole Miss by 15.3
    • Projected closeness 8/35
    • Team quality 25/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    46
    score
  15. 20
    ArizonaatWashington State
    Sat, Sep 26 · 7:30 PM ETGesa Fieldmodel Arizona by 8.9
    • Projected closeness 15/35
    • Team quality 22/30
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    45
    score
  16. 21
    #23MissouriatMississippi State
    Time TBDDavis Wade Stadiummodel Missouri by 10.7
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 22/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    45
    score
  17. 22
    ClemsonatCalifornia
    Fri, Sep 25 · 10:30 PM ETCalifornia Memorial Stadiummodel Clemson by 2.3
    • Projected closeness 28/35
    • Team quality 10/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    45
    score
  18. 23
    Oklahoma StateatWest Virginia
    Time TBDMilan Puskar Stadiummodel West Virginia by 1.0
    • Projected closeness 32/35
    • Team quality 4/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    44
    score
  19. 24
    #20UtahatIowa State
    Time TBDJack Trice Stadiummodel Utah by 14.5
    • Projected closeness 8/35
    • Team quality 23/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    42
    score
  20. 25
    Northwesternat#5Indiana
    Fri, Sep 25 · 8:00 PM ETMemorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)model Indiana by 18.2
    • Projected closeness 6/35
    • Team quality 22/30
    • Stakes 9/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 1/10
    42
    score
  21. 26
    Kennesaw StateatArkansas State
    Sat, Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ETCentennial Bank Stadiummodel Kennesaw State by 1.2
    • Projected closeness 31/35
    • Team quality 8/30
    • Points on the board 3/10
    42
    score
  22. 27
    Air ForceatNevada
    Time TBDMackay Stadiummodel Air Force by 5.4
    • Projected closeness 21/35
    • Team quality 12/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    40
    score
  23. 28
    ColoradoatBaylor
    Time TBDMcLane Stadiummodel Baylor by 7.0
    • Projected closeness 18/35
    • Team quality 12/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    39
    score
  24. 29
    NavyatUAB
    Fri, Sep 25 · 7:00 PM ETProtective Stadiummodel UAB by 6.8
    • Projected closeness 18/35
    • Team quality 13/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    38
    score
  25. 30
    UConnatMiami (OH)
    Time TBDYager Stadiummodel Miami (OH) by 2.7
    • Projected closeness 27/35
    • Team quality 7/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    37
    score
  26. 31
    Virginia TechatBoston College
    Time TBDAlumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)model Virginia Tech by 7.2
    • Projected closeness 17/35
    • Team quality 10/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    36
    score
  27. 32
    NebraskaatMichigan State
    Time TBDSpartan Stadiummodel Nebraska by 12.3
    • Projected closeness 10/35
    • Team quality 16/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    35
    score
  28. 33
    ArmyatTemple
    Fri, Sep 25 · 4:00 PM ETLincoln Financial Fieldmodel Army by 8.2
    • Projected closeness 16/35
    • Team quality 9/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    34
    score
  29. 34
    San Diego StateatToledo
    Time TBDGlass Bowlmodel San Diego State by 10.7
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 18/30
    • Points on the board 4/10
    34
    score
  30. 35
    #3Notre DameatPurdue
    Time TBDRoss-Ade Stadiummodel Notre Dame by 19.1
    • Projected closeness 5/35
    • Team quality 13/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    32
    score
  31. 36
    UNLVatAkron
    Time TBDInfoCision Stadiummodel UNLV by 6.4
    • Projected closeness 19/35
    • Team quality 7/30
    • Points on the board 5/10
    31
    score
  32. 37
    New MexicoatNew Mexico StateRio Grande Rivalry
    Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ETAggie Memorial Stadiummodel New Mexico by 11.3
    • Projected closeness 11/35
    • Team quality 8/30
    • History 8/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    30
    score
  33. 38
    LibertyatCoastal Carolina
    Thu, Sep 24 · 7:30 PM ETBrooks Stadium (SC)model Liberty by 11.2
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 11/30
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    28
    score
  34. 39
    Delawareat#25Virginia
    Time TBDScott Stadiummodel Virginia by 21.3
    • Projected closeness 4/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 5/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    28
    score
  35. 40
    TulsaatArkansas
    Sat, Sep 26 · 8:00 PM ETRazorback Stadiummodel Arkansas by 11.5
    • Projected closeness 11/35
    • Team quality 8/30
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    27
    score

How the score is built

Projected closeness — 35 points
Decays exponentially in the model’s projected margin: a pick’em is the full 35, a touchdown favorite about half, three scores nothing. The largest term, because a blowout is a blowout no matter who is playing.
Team quality — 30 points
Elo percentile of both sides, with two thirds of the weight on the weaker team. A top-five side hosting a bad one is not a good game, and an average of the two would claim it was.
Stakes — 15 points
Poll position going into the week, plus a share for a conference game. Two ranked teams take most of it; the higher the pair, the more.
Rivalry history — 10 points
From the all-time series: a named trophy game, the length of the series, and whether the all-time ledger has stayed close.
Points on the board — 10 points
The projected total, from the drive-sim. A 31-28 is better television than a 10-7 and that is allowed to matter a little — but only a little, or the whole list becomes bad defenses.

There is no term for brand, television window or network. A watchability score that rewards blue bloods for existing is a popularity ranking wearing a lab coat.