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Will Sheppard
Will Sheppard

#14Will Sheppard

WR·Vanderbilt·2023

Will Sheppard is a Versatile WR for Vanderbilt. Will's 2023 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 54 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Will Sheppard's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving
47 Receptions684 Rec yards8 Rec TD14.6 Yards/rec
Returns
9 Punt returns89 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume22
  • Explosiveness50
  • Consistency74
  • Pass-Down0
Player type
Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.37 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 3.48 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Georgia (SP+ 31).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+3.480−3.48Wk 1 vs Alabama A&M: +1.47 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Wake Forest: +1.18 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs UNLV: +0.56 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Kentucky: +0.99 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Missouri: +0.86 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Florida: +2.95 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Georgia: +3.48 EPA/play7Wk 9 vs Ole Miss: -0.07 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Auburn: +1.17 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs South Carolina: +0.54 EPA/play11Wk 13 vs Tennessee: +0.23 EPA/play13
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
0vsHawai'iW35-28-16.466811.3222—
1vsAlabama A&MW47-13—66210.32171.47
2@Wake ForestL20-36-7.988710.92211.18
3@UNLVL37-401.459719.40330.56
4vsKentuckyL28-4510.523115.50210.99
5vsMissouriL21-3819.359819.61310.86
6@FloridaL14-386.8310735.71852.95
7vsGeorgiaL20-3731.212424.00243.48
9@Ole MissL7-3318.44174.305-0.07
10vsAuburnL15-317.644310.80281.17
11@South CarolinaL6-474.3166.0060.54
13@TennesseeL24-4816.224422.00270.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
7.7%
Passing plays
14.0%
Rushing plays
0.0%
Standard downs
7.4%
Passing downs
8.0%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
1.23
Passing downs
0.71
Pass / Rush EPA
1.03 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.