#17Ty Son Lawton

RB·Indiana·2024

Ty Son Lawton is a Explosive Back for Indiana. Ty's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 144 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ty Son Lawton's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

668 Rush yards12 Rush TD141 Carries4.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

12 Receptions124 Rec yards0 Rec TD10.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume52
Explosiveness34
Consistency68
Receiving40

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.10 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.63 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Nebraska (SP+ 6).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsFlorida International	W31-7	-12.1	16	74	4.6	2	—	—	—	0.21
2	vsWestern Illinois	W77-3	—	6	42	7.0	1	—	—	—	0.49
3	@UCLA	W42-13	-1.3	10	33	3.3	0	1	4	0	-0.23
4	vsCharlotte	W52-14	-15.3	7	35	5.0	2	—	—	—	0.29
5	vsMaryland	W42-28	-3.9	19	93	4.9	1	2	18	0	0.13
6	vsNorthwestern	W41-24	-8.2	10	52	5.2	1	2	26	0	0.48
8	vsNebraska	W56-7	5.5	8	64	8.0	1	1	35	0	0.63
9	vsWashington	W31-17	3.1	12	41	3.4	0	1	2	0	-0.08
10	@Michigan State	W47-10	-4.6	6	19	3.2	1	1	16	0	0.32
11	vsMichigan	W20-15	10.6	12	55	4.6	0	—	—	—	0.09
13	@Ohio State	L15-38	31.2	15	79	5.3	2	2	9	0	0.25
14	vsPurdue	W66-0	-16.2	10	47	4.7	1	1	4	0	0.08
20	@Notre Dame	L17-27	23.9	10	34	3.4	0	1	10	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

18.2%

Passing plays

4.0%

Rushing plays

29.8%

Standard downs

20.7%

Passing downs

11.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.17
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.16

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).