#4Sean Mannion

QB·Oregon State·20133.1 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Sean Mannion is a Clutch Passer for Oregon State. Sean's 2013 season ranks in the 35th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 524 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sean Mannion's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

400/603 Comp/Att4662 Pass yards37 Pass TD15 INT66.3% Comp %

Rushing

-223 Rush yards0 Rush TD34 Carries-6.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency35
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency73
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)35th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.25 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.59 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs California (SP+ -9).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsEastern Washington	L46-49	—	37/43	422	3	0	93.9	—	—	0.57
2	vsHawai'i	W33-14	-14.3	31/43	372	4	1	93.0	-13	0	0.53
3	@Utah	W51-48	11.8	27/45	443	5	0	92.7	-12	0	0.38
4	@San Diego State	W34-30	-4.8	38/55	367	3	0	68.7	-23	0	0.22
5	vsColorado	W44-17	-0.7	27/52	414	6	1	57.0	-19	0	0.07
7	@Washington State	W52-24	8.2	34/51	493	4	1	85.3	-6	0	0.41
8	@California	W49-17	-8.7	35/45	481	4	0	91.2	-19	0	0.59
9	vsStanford	L12-20	21.7	41/57	271	1	0	29.5	-60	0	0.01
10	vsUSC	L14-31	22.5	26/45	277	1	3	12.0	-22	0	-0.18
12	@Arizona State	L17-30	17.5	31/46	320	2	4	46.1	-9	0	0.15
13	vsWashington	L27-69	20.5	20/41	229	1	3	10.4	-12	0	-0.00
14	@Oregon	L35-36	28.7	29/47	314	2	1	53.2	-28	0	0.27
1	vsBoise State	W38-23	11.3	24/33	259	1	1	87.8	—	—	0.40

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

60.6%

Passing plays

93.8%

Rushing plays

2.2%

Standard downs

52.6%

Passing downs

77.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.11
Passing downs: 0.52
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.28 / -0.68

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.