#37Riley Nowakowski

TE·Indiana·2025

Riley Nowakowski is a Versatile TE for Indiana. Riley's 2025 season produced 27.6 total EPA across 36 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.42
Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
Total EPA (value)0.46
Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Riley Nowakowski's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

32 Receptions387 Rec yards2 Rec TD12.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs TE peers

Efficiency100
Volume12
Explosiveness34
Consistency54
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile TE

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency54th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 3.94 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Illinois (SP+ 13).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Ty Thompson	Tulane	2024	48	0.420	0.7	20.2
Seth Green	Minnesota	2018	83	0.390	0.0	32.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsOld Dominion	W27-14	5.9	2	15	7.5	0	9	-0.95
2	vsKennesaw State	W56-9	-5.4	1	14	14.0	0	14	1.35
4	vsIllinois	W63-10	12.9	1	43	43.0	1	43	3.94
5	@Iowa	W20-15	19.7	1	4	4.0	0	4	-0.17
7	@Oregon	W30-20	25.9	3	11	3.7	0	6	0.19
8	vsMichigan State	W38-13	-3.4	3	54	18.0	0	39	0.94
9	vsUCLA	W56-6	-8.7	3	17	5.7	0	6	0.66
10	@Maryland	W55-10	0.6	2	22	11.0	0	19	-0.66
11	@Penn State	W27-24	18.1	3	51	17.0	0	29	1.14
12	vsWisconsin	W31-7	-4.4	4	65	16.3	1	37	1.13
15	vsOhio State	W13-10	30.1	2	20	10.0	0	11	1.55
20	vsOregon	W56-22	25.9	2	18	9.0	0	13	—
20	vsAlabama	W38-3	14.8	3	36	12.0	0	31	—
20	vsMiami	W27-21	20.7	2	17	8.5	0	9	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

4.1%

Passing plays

9.7%

Rushing plays

0.4%

Standard downs

3.7%

Passing downs

5.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.60
Passing downs: 1.19
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.67 / 2.45

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).