#1Payton Thorne

QB·Michigan State·2024 20219.4 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Payton Thorne is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Michigan State. Payton's 2021 season ranks in the 70th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 437 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Payton Thorne's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Passing

235/389 Comp/Att3240 Pass yards27 Pass TD10 INT60.4% Comp %

Rushing

181 Rush yards4 Rush TD82 Carries2.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency70
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency83
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)70th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.19 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.87 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Youngstown State.

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Northwestern	W38-21	-11.1	15/25	185	1	0	76.2	28	0	0.38
2	vsYoungstown State	W42-14	—	15/21	280	4	0	88.4	19	1	0.87
3	@Miami	W38-17	10.8	18/31	261	4	0	88.0	4	0	0.45
4	vsNebraska	W23-20	10.3	14/23	183	1	1	39.9	-5	0	0.27
5	vsWestern Kentucky	W48-31	13.3	20/30	327	1	0	91.1	31	1	0.55
6	@Rutgers	W31-13	-3.0	16/27	339	3	1	94.4	9	0	0.72
7	@Indiana	W20-15	-7.8	14/26	126	1	2	20.7	10	0	0.26
9	vsMichigan	W37-33	23.4	19/30	196	0	2	48.4	0	0	0.26
10	@Purdue	L29-40	10.3	20/30	276	2	1	91.1	47	1	0.35
11	vsMaryland	W40-21	6.2	22/30	287	4	1	90.5	4	0	0.48
12	@Ohio State	L7-56	29.3	14/36	158	1	0	26.3	-9	0	-0.07
13	vsPenn State	W30-27	14.3	19/30	268	2	1	94.9	39	1	0.82
1	vsPittsburgh	W31-21	17.6	29/50	354	3	1	78.3	4	0	0.28

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.1%

Passing plays

95.9%

Rushing plays

13.7%

Standard downs

45.2%

Passing downs

70.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.64
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.43 / 0.46

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2024 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	Michigan State	9.4	0.566	—	261.0
2024	Auburn	5.9	0.429	-0.14	179.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.