#25Nakia Watson

RB·Washington State·2023

Nakia Watson is a Pass-Catching Back for Washington State. Nakia's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 109 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nakia Watson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

321 Rush yards4 Rush TD89 Carries3.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

24 Receptions230 Rec yards3 Rec TD9.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume38
Explosiveness12
Consistency11
Receiving69

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency11th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.19 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.93 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Arizona (SP+ 14).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Colorado State	W50-24	-8.9	7	15	2.1	0	3	16	1	-0.26
2	vsWisconsin	W31-22	9.4	11	26	2.4	1	2	19	0	0.24
3	vsNorthern Colorado	W64-21	—	9	41	4.6	1	1	19	0	0.64
4	vsOregon State	W38-35	12.6	8	46	5.8	0	—	—	—	-0.07
6	@UCLA	L17-25	9.7	11	25	2.3	0	1	9	1	-0.05
7	vsArizona	L6-44	14.1	5	0	0.0	1	5	88	0	0.93
8	@Oregon	L24-38	26.2	8	20	2.5	1	3	38	0	0.08
9	@Arizona State	L27-38	-11.3	7	30	4.3	0	3	10	0	-0.15
10	vsStanford	L7-10	-11.9	2	1	0.5	0	—	—	—	-0.34
11	@California	L39-42	-0.1	2	6	3.0	0	1	2	0	-0.21
12	vsColorado	W56-14	-4.9	8	47	5.9	0	1	23	1	0.87
13	@Washington	L21-24	16.4	11	64	5.8	0	4	6	0	0.02

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

13.4%

Passing plays

5.1%

Rushing plays

28.1%

Standard downs

15.5%

Passing downs

9.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.08
Passing downs: 0.50
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.60 / 0.03

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).