#7Kelly Bryant

QB·Clemson·20175.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Kelly Bryant is a Dual-Threat QB for Clemson. Kelly's 2017 season ranks in the 15th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 579 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kelly Bryant's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

262/398 Comp/Att2802 Pass yards13 Pass TD8 INT65.8% Comp %

Rushing

665 Rush yards11 Rush TD192 Carries3.5 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts45 Punt yards45.0 Yards/punt45 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency15
Volume100
Dual-Threat76
Consistency75
Clutch57

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)15th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency75th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Peak game: 0.85 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs The Citadel.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsKent State	W56-3	-20.2	16/22	236	1	1	95.7	77	1	0.76
2	vsAuburn	W14-6	24.7	19/29	181	0	0	69.1	59	2	0.21
3	@Louisville	W47-21	19.2	22/32	316	1	0	66.8	26	2	0.29
4	vsBoston College	W34-7	4.6	17/26	140	0	2	34.5	106	2	0.18
5	@Virginia Tech	W31-17	14.3	12/21	186	1	0	78.1	94	0	0.36
6	vsWake Forest	W28-14	10.5	21/29	200	1	1	57.9	39	0	0.12
7	@Syracuse	L24-27	4.0	12/17	116	0	0	45.7	-8	0	0.16
9	vsGeorgia Tech	W24-10	8.9	22/33	207	2	0	80.7	67	0	0.28
10	@NC State	W38-31	12.9	20/38	191	1	1	72.7	88	2	0.24
11	vsFlorida State	W31-14	22.8	20/30	151	0	0	63.6	60	1	0.14
12	vsThe Citadel	W61-3	—	17/22	230	3	0	97.4	5	0	0.85
13	@South Carolina	W34-10	7.8	23/34	272	2	1	75.4	26	0	0.19
14	vsMiami	W38-3	17.4	23/29	252	1	0	89.0	7	1	0.34
1	vsAlabama	L6-24	33.5	18/36	124	0	2	7.2	19	0	-0.13

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

55.5%

Passing plays

84.6%

Rushing plays

30.7%

Standard downs

50.8%

Passing downs

67.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.30
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.23 / 0.28

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.