#11Javion Posey

WR·Florida Atlantic·20201.4 pts line value1st Round

Javion Posey is a Workhorse Receiver WR for Florida Atlantic. Javion's 2020 season ranks in the 92th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 122 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Javion Posey's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

33/63 Comp/Att395 Pass yards2 Pass TD3 INT52.4% Comp %

Rushing

361 Rush yards3 Rush TD58 Carries6.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs WR peers

Efficiency92
Volume87
Explosiveness33
Consistency66
Pass-Down100

Player type

Workhorse Receiver WR

The primary target in the offense — used across all situations and down-types at an elite volume.

Top target shareAll-down utilityOffense runs through this player

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)92th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency66th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.13 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.53 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Florida International (SP+ -11).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Zach Abey	Navy	2018	126	0.370	2.1	46.6
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Kendall Hinton	Wake Forest	2015	84	0.460	2.4	38.6
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2018	144	0.360	2.3	51.8
Kawaan Baker	South Alabama	2018	63	0.410	1.4	25.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · EPA per play, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	EPA/play	Pass	Rush
10	vsWestern Kentucky	W10-6	-3.2	0.07	-2.90	0.40
11	@Florida International	W38-19	-10.7	0.53	0.39	0.65
12	vsMassachusetts	W24-2	-31.3	0.18	0.05	0.51
14	@Georgia Southern	L3-20	0.2	0.24	0.22	0.27
15	@Southern Miss	L31-45	-7.9	0.31	-0.28	0.60
1	vsMemphis	L10-25	5.7	-0.17	-0.45	0.93

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

30.5%

Passing plays

41.0%

Rushing plays

22.5%

Standard downs

26.2%

Passing downs

38.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.44
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.09 / 0.51

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 · 6 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.