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Jakarius Caston
Jakarius Caston

#1Jakarius Caston

WR·Southern Miss·2023

Jakarius Caston is a Vertical Threat WR for Southern Miss. Jakarius's 2023 season produced 53.3 total EPA across 48 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jakarius Caston's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving
33 Receptions621 Rec yards6 Rec TD18.8 Yards/rec
Returns
4 Kick returns176 KR yards1 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume18
  • Explosiveness79
  • Consistency82
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Vertical Threat WR

Elite deep receiver who stretches the field. Wins downfield, commands safety attention, and creates the threat that opens underneath routes.

Downfield threatYAC upsideCreates space for teammates
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.24 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.80 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Tulane (SP+ 3).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.800−2.80Wk 1 vs Alcorn State: +1.96 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Florida State: +0.29 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Tulane: +2.80 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Arkansas State: +1.89 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Texas State: +1.29 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Old Dominion: +0.72 EPA/play6Wk 9 vs App State: +0.16 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs UL Monroe: +2.00 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Louisiana: +0.43 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Mississippi State: +2.62 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Troy: +1.80 EPA/play13
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsAlcorn StateW40-14—510420.81301.96
2@Florida StateL13-6619.422311.50130.29
3vsTulaneL3-212.825427.00392.80
4@Arkansas StateL37-44-6.346516.31241.89
5vsTexas StateL36-50-1.633712.31291.29
6vsOld DominionL13-17-10.155110.20190.72
9@App StateL38-483.833411.30190.16
10vsUL MonroeW24-7-21.639230.71802.00
11@LouisianaW34-310.435819.31260.43
12@Mississippi StateL20-410.528844.01442.62
13vsTroyL17-359.811515.00151.80

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
6.3%
Passing plays
12.6%
Rushing plays
1.0%
Standard downs
6.4%
Passing downs
6.1%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.84
Passing downs
1.61
Pass / Rush EPA
1.10 / 1.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.
Jakarius Caston Stats, EPA & Player Profile — Southern Miss · Gridpex