#9J.J. McCarthy

QB·Michigan·2023 20229.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

J.J. McCarthy is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Michigan. J.J.'s 2023 season ranks in the 70th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 377 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So J.J. McCarthy's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

240/332 Comp/Att2991 Pass yards22 Pass TD4 INT72.3% Comp %

Rushing

202 Rush yards3 Rush TD64 Carries3.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency70
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency85
Clutch86

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)70th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency85th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸10 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.51 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.92 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Michigan State (SP+ -7).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsEast Carolina	W30-3	-12.8	26/30	280	3	0	94.3	-2	0	0.82
2	vsUNLV	W35-7	1.4	22/25	278	2	0	96.1	38	0	0.87
3	vsBowling Green	W31-6	-7.8	8/13	143	2	3	10.6	-1	0	0.59
4	vsRutgers	W31-7	3.5	15/21	214	1	0	96.8	51	0	0.70
5	@Nebraska	W45-7	0.3	12/16	156	2	0	99.2	30	1	0.85
6	@Minnesota	W52-10	0.4	14/20	219	1	0	92.0	17	2	0.68
7	vsIndiana	W52-7	-7.4	14/17	222	3	0	84.4	27	0	0.73
8	@Michigan State	W49-0	-6.8	21/27	287	4	0	97.7	8	0	0.92
10	vsPurdue	W41-13	-7.3	24/37	335	0	0	72.1	-31	0	0.22
11	@Penn State	W24-15	23.5	7/8	60	0	0	96.2	34	0	0.42
12	@Maryland	W31-24	11.0	12/23	141	0	1	53.7	-7	0	0.02
13	vsOhio State	W30-24	25.2	16/20	148	1	0	94.5	17	0	0.47
14	vsIowa	W26-0	5.8	22/30	147	0	0	69.9	-35	0	0.08
20	vsWashington	W34-13	16.4	10/18	140	0	0	—	31	0	—
20	vsAlabama	W27-20	23.1	17/27	221	3	0	91.9	25	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

42.6%

Passing plays

92.3%

Rushing plays

8.2%

Standard downs

36.7%

Passing downs

58.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.44
Passing downs: 0.67
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.52 / 0.60

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 — 2023 · 29 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2022	Michigan	8.5	0.549	—	231.7
2023	Michigan	9.3	0.625	+0.08	260.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.