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Dylan Lonergan
Dylan Lonergan

#12Dylan Lonergan

QB·Boston College·2025

Dylan Lonergan is a Clutch Passer for Boston College. Dylan's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 302 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.46
    Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.51
    Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dylan Lonergan's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing
190/284 Comp/Att2025 Pass yards12 Pass TD5 INT66.9% Comp %
Rushing
-37 Rush yards1 Rush TD36 Carries-1.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

  • Efficiency0
  • Volume100
  • Dual-Threat0
  • Consistency70
  • Clutch87
Player type
Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg
Game-to-game consistency70th %ile · average
Key findings
  • ▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
  • ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Peak game: 0.58 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Syracuse (SP+ -13).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗
Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+0.580−0.58Wk 1 vs Fordham: +0.48 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Michigan State: +0.42 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Stanford: +0.13 EPA/play3Wk 5 vs California: +0.02 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Pittsburgh: +0.11 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Clemson: +0.29 EPA/play7Wk 10 vs Notre Dame: -0.12 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs SMU: -0.03 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Georgia Tech: +0.32 EPA/play12Wk 14 vs Syracuse: +0.58 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+C/ATTPass YdsPass TDINTQBRRush YdsRush TDEPA/play
1vsFordhamW66-10—26/342684055.3-300.48
2@Michigan StateL40-42-3.434/453904088.9200.42
3@StanfordL20-30-11.830/443331151.4-1300.13
5vsCaliforniaL24-28-3.221/371970234.5310.02
6@PittsburghL7-488.49/18890021.6-2000.11
7vsClemsonL10-419.512/191170061.1-1600.29
10vsNotre DameL10-2524.45/8290132.130-0.12
11vsSMUL13-4513.425/372321142.6120-0.03
12vsGeorgia TechL34-369.326/403622077.4-500.32
14@SyracuseW34-12-13.12/280077.9——0.58

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
46.1%
Passing plays
72.6%
Rushing plays
8.4%
Standard downs
39.7%
Passing downs
61.3%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.11
Passing downs
0.35
Pass / Rush EPA
0.24 / -0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.