#9Dorian Fleming

TE·Georgia State·2024

Dorian Fleming is a Versatile TE for Georgia State. Dorian's 2024 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 55 plays — a elite rate for the TE.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.42
Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
Total EPA (value)0.46
Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dorian Fleming's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving

49 Receptions558 Rec yards6 Rec TD11.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs TE peers

Efficiency100
Volume20
Explosiveness29
Consistency79
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile TE

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸10 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.23 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 2.60 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Coastal Carolina (SP+ -7).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Ty Thompson	Tulane	2024	48	0.420	0.7	20.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Georgia Tech	L12-35	1.9	4	68	17.0	1	28	1.33
2	vsChattanooga	W24-21	—	4	28	7.0	0	13	0.44
3	vsVanderbilt	W36-32	4.9	6	49	8.2	0	15	1.00
5	vsGeorgia Southern	L21-38	-1.7	2	58	29.0	1	58	1.88
7	vsOld Dominion	L14-21	-6.0	5	31	6.2	0	11	0.43
8	@Marshall	L20-35	3.1	7	66	9.4	0	20	0.46
9	@App State	L26-33	-8.1	3	33	11.0	0	15	0.28
10	@UConn	L27-34	1.5	4	18	4.5	0	9	0.14
11	@James Madison	L7-38	7.5	3	54	18.0	0	36	1.89
12	vsArkansas State	L20-27	-9.9	4	47	11.8	0	28	1.05
13	@Texas State	W52-44	5.4	5	88	17.6	3	30	0.98
14	vsCoastal Carolina	L27-48	-6.9	2	18	9.0	1	12	2.60

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

7.0%

Passing plays

11.8%

Rushing plays

0.3%

Standard downs

5.8%

Passing downs

9.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.69
Passing downs: 1.06
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.88 / -0.48

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).