#10David Fales

QB·San José State·20134.5 pts line value1st Round

David Fales is a Dual-Threat QB for San José State. David's 2013 season ranks in the 85th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 433 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So David Fales's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

312/487 Comp/Att4189 Pass yards33 Pass TD13 INT64.1% Comp %

Rushing

7 Rush yards2 Rush TD48 Carries0.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency85
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency81
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)85th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (85th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.21 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.90 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Fresno State (SP+ 9).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSacramento State	W24-0	—	16/32	225	2	0	55.0	-6	0	0.08
2	@Stanford	L13-34	21.7	29/43	216	1	1	41.9	-28	0	0.31
4	@Minnesota	L24-43	2.5	22/35	439	3	2	86.7	—	—	0.45
5	vsUtah State	L12-40	4.2	25/48	314	0	2	39.5	9	0	0.24
6	@Hawai'i	W37-27	-14.3	16/35	318	3	2	—	-6	0	0.05
7	@Colorado State	W34-27	3.0	28/35	431	3	1	83.1	33	0	0.34
9	vsWyoming	W51-44	-15.3	27/37	482	5	0	85.7	-8	1	0.42
10	@UNLV	W34-24	-10.1	15/30	150	1	2	40.3	6	0	0.24
11	vsSan Diego State	L30-34	-4.8	27/48	301	3	2	59.8	-3	0	0.56
12	@Nevada	L16-38	-16.8	28/43	326	1	0	52.3	-23	0	0.25
13	vsNavy	L52-58	-0.3	42/56	440	5	1	94.5	0	0	0.34
14	vsFresno State	W62-52	8.8	37/45	547	6	0	97.8	33	1	0.90

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

50.3%

Passing plays

90.7%

Rushing plays

6.3%

Standard downs

43.4%

Passing downs

66.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.57
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.52

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.