#2Chevan Cordeiro

QB·San José State·2022 20205.7 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Chevan Cordeiro is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for San José State. Chevan's 2022 season ranks in the 3th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 493 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chevan Cordeiro's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Passing

259/426 Comp/Att3242 Pass yards23 Pass TD6 INT60.8% Comp %

Rushing

260 Rush yards9 Rush TD138 Carries1.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs QB peers

Efficiency3
Volume100
Dual-Threat80
Consistency84
Clutch99

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)3th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.57 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs UNLV (SP+ -12).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsPortland State	W21-17	—	15/30	239	1	0	25.4	0	2	0.02
2	@Auburn	L16-24	5.1	24/40	275	0	0	62.5	23	0	0.09
4	vsWestern Michigan	W34-6	-17.3	17/28	250	2	0	51.4	30	0	0.44
5	@Wyoming	W33-16	-10.8	21/37	314	1	0	68.9	24	2	0.43
6	vsUNLV	W40-7	-11.9	18/27	230	2	0	85.5	109	2	0.57
7	@Fresno State	L10-17	3.3	22/44	294	1	1	29.0	-18	0	0.15
9	vsNevada	W35-28	-22.4	33/45	340	2	0	59.5	-10	1	0.32
10	vsColorado State	W28-16	-22.2	27/42	274	2	1	55.6	19	0	—
11	@San Diego State	L27-43	-4.4	19/33	195	3	1	63.8	-1	1	0.25
12	@Utah State	L31-35	-13.3	20/30	257	4	0	54.0	15	0	0.21
13	vsHawai'i	W27-14	-24.7	17/26	208	2	1	36.8	19	0	0.27
1	vsEastern Michigan	L27-41	-7.1	26/44	366	3	2	—	50	1	0.42

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

72.0%

Passing plays

99.3%

Rushing plays

32.1%

Standard downs

66.3%

Passing downs

84.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.47
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / 0.30

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2022 · 20 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Hawai'i	7.6	0.435	—	196.1
2022	San José State	5.7	0.406	-0.03	198.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.