#11Arian Smith

WR·Georgia·2024

Arian Smith is a Versatile WR for Georgia. Arian's 2024 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 61 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Arian Smith's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving

48 Receptions817 Rec yards4 Rec TD17.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume19
Explosiveness67
Consistency72
Pass-Down74

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency72th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.40 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 3.00 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Massachusetts (SP+ -22).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsClemson	W34-3	13.3	5	56	11.2	0	32	0.70
2	vsTennessee Tech	W48-3	—	4	73	18.3	1	50	1.04
3	@Kentucky	W13-12	5.5	2	13	6.5	0	7	0.12
5	@Alabama	L34-41	25.0	6	132	22.0	1	47	1.48
6	vsAuburn	W31-13	9.5	1	4	4.0	0	4	-0.07
7	vsMississippi State	W41-31	-4.1	5	134	26.8	1	55	1.95
8	@Texas	W30-15	24.1	6	32	5.3	0	21	0.29
10	vsFlorida	W34-20	13.8	2	59	29.5	0	34	2.00
11	@Ole Miss	L10-28	27.9	3	32	10.7	0	17	-0.17
12	vsTennessee	W31-17	22.0	3	50	16.7	0	23	1.30
13	vsMassachusetts	W59-21	-21.9	3	110	36.7	1	49	3.00
14	vsGeorgia Tech	W44-42	1.9	2	14	7.0	0	9	0.61
15	vsTexas	W22-19	24.1	5	41	8.2	0	18	0.36
20	vsNotre Dame	L10-23	23.9	1	67	67.0	0	67	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

6.5%

Passing plays

10.7%

Rushing plays

1.2%

Standard downs

5.7%

Passing downs

8.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.86
Passing downs: 1.00
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.95 / 0.48

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).