Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami DolphinsMarket
- Book
- +7.5
- o44.5
- Exchange
- —
- Volume
- —
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Miami Dolphins is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- +1.9
- Dolphins
- Win prob
- 56%
- Chiefs
- Likely range
- -18 to 15
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1387 − 1550 = -6.5 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- -4.2 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- -1.9 Dolphins
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1550#12
- FPI rank
- #72026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1387#24
- FPI rank
- #322026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last 2 meetings
Dolphins 0–2- 2023 wk 19Dolphins at Chiefs7–26Chiefs
- 2023 wk 9Dolphins at Chiefs14–21Chiefs
From the 2023 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Order flow
Nothing has traded on the exchange for this game yet.
Who has moved
consensus +7.5| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKingsunmoved | +7.5 | 0 | 0 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total
The exchange isn't pricing a total for this game yet.
Notable trades
Nothing has traded here at a size worth calling out.
Resting size
No order book for this market right now.