Braves at D-backs
Last play · Michael Harris II flies out to center fielder Alek Thomas.
Win probability
D-backs100%
ATL 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 1 – 2 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-107 / -113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
D-backs favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jose Fernandez singles on a bunt ground ball to pitcher Bryce Elder. Gabriel Moreno scores. Nolan Arenado scores. Jose Fernandez to 2nd. Throwing error by pitcher Bryce Elder. (inning 2) — +25% D-backs
2Jose Fernandez singles on a bunt ground ball to pitcher Bryce Elder. Gabriel Moreno scores. Nolan Arenado scores. Jose Fernandez to 2nd. Throwing error by pitcher Bryce Elder.1–2
2Dominic Smith singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jorge Barrosa. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Dominic Smith to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































