Phillies at D-backs
Last play · Gabriel Moreno grounds out, shortstop Trea Turner to first baseman Alec Bohm.
Win probability
D-backs0%
PHI 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 2 – 1 AZ
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-137 / +114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryson Stott homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 2) — -15% Phillies
3Gabriel Moreno doubles (29) on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Geraldo Perdomo scores.2–1
3Bryce Harper doubles (28) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Garrett Stubbs scores. Kyle Schwarber to 3rd.2–0
2Bryson Stott homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































