Phillies at D-backs
Last play · Luis Arraez grounds out, second baseman Ildemaro Vargas to first baseman Tim Tawa.
Win probability
D-backs100%
PHI 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 0 AZ
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 52.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-132 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
D-backs favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · James McCann homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 8) — +38% D-backs
8James McCann homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































