Orioles at Athletics
BAL8–
ATH5Last play · Jeff McNeil flies out to left fielder Dylan Beavers.
Win probability
Athletics0%
BAL 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 7 – 5 ATH
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-147 / +137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gunnar Henderson homers (22) on a fly ball to right field. Blaze Alexander scores. Pete Alonso scores. (inning 5) — -43% Orioles
8Gunnar Henderson triples (5) on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Henry Bolte. Jackson Holliday scores.8–5
5Gunnar Henderson homers (22) on a fly ball to right field. Blaze Alexander scores. Pete Alonso scores.7–5
4Coby Mayo homers (19) on a line drive to left center field. Pete Alonso scores. Gunnar Henderson scores.4–5
3Brian Serven homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Tommy White scores.1–5
2Jeff McNeil doubles (19) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Leody Taveras. Brian Serven scores. Henry Bolte to 3rd.1–3
1Lawrence Butler doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Leody Taveras. Henry Bolte scores. Zack Gelof scores.1–2
1Gunnar Henderson homers (21) on a line drive to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.