Red Sox at Orioles
Last play · Dylan Beavers strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Orioles0%
BOS 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 3 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Sogard homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Adley Rutschman scores. (inning 8) — -39% Red Sox
9Christian Encarnacion-Strand homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. Gunnar Henderson scores.6–5
9Roman Anthony homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.6–3
8Nick Sogard homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Adley Rutschman scores.5–3
7Isiah Kiner-Falefa singles on a ground ball to right fielder Leody Taveras. Eli White scores.3–3
6Adley Rutschman homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field.2–3
4Pete Alonso homers (33) on a fly ball to center field.1–3
4Luis Robert Jr. homers (11) on a fly ball to left field.1–2
1Pete Alonso out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Eli White. Blaze Alexander scores. Coby Mayo to 3rd.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































