Red Sox at Orioles
Last play · Christian Encarnacion-Strand strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles0%
BOS 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 3 – 1 BAL
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 53.1% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Orioles favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eli White homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Caleb Durbin scores. Andruw Monasterio scores. (inning 2) — -34% Red Sox
2Eli White homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Caleb Durbin scores. Andruw Monasterio scores.3–1
1Christian Encarnacion-Strand hits a ground-rule double (9) on a fly ball down the left-field line. Coby Mayo scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































