Padres at Red Sox
Last play · Ramón Laureano flies out to right fielder Wilyer Abreu.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
SD 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 2 BOS
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 9 ↓
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -132
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willson Contreras homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 6) — +19% Red Sox
6Marcelo Mayer homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Wilyer Abreu scores.2–5
6Willson Contreras homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.2–3
5Luis Campusano doubles (1) on a fly ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Gavin Sheets scores.2–2
5Gavin Sheets singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Miguel Andujar scores.1–2
4Caleb Durbin singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Jarren Duran scores.0–2
3Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Marcelo Mayer scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































