Brewers at Red Sox
Last play · Trevor Story grounds out, second baseman Brice Turang to first baseman Jake Bauers.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
MIL 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 5 – 5 BOS
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Red Sox challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Garrett Mitchell singles on a line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. Brice Turang scores. Christian Yelich scores. Garrett Mitchell to 3rd. Throwing error by left fielder Roman Anthony. (inning 8) — -39% Brewers
9Willson Contreras homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.8–6
9Sal Frelick singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Luis Rengifo scores.8–5
8Red Sox challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Garrett Mitchell singles on a line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. Brice Turang scores. Christian Yelich scores. Garrett Mitchell to 3rd. Throwing error by left fielder Roman Anthony.7–5
5Brice Turang grounds into a force out, first baseman Willson Contreras to shortstop Trevor Story. David Hamilton scores. Blake Perkins out at 2nd. Brice Turang to 1st.5–5
4Willson Contreras hits a ground-rule double (1) on a fly ball down the right-field line. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Masataka Yoshida to 3rd.4–5
4Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a ground ball to center fielder Garrett Mitchell, deflected by shortstop David Hamilton. Caleb Durbin scores.4–4
4Jake Bauers walks. William Contreras scores. Christian Yelich to 3rd. Garrett Mitchell to 2nd.4–3
4Garrett Mitchell singles on a soft ground ball to pitcher Danny Coulombe. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras to 3rd. Christian Yelich to 2nd.3–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































