Brewers at Red Sox
Last play · Blake Perkins grounds into a double play, shortstop Trevor Story to second baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa to first baseman Willson Contreras. Sal Frelick out at 2nd. Blake Perkins out at 1st.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
MIL 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 0 – 0 BOS
Tied through 5
Total runs
6
opened 7 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trevor Story doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Lockridge. Jarren Duran scores. Willson Contreras scores. Wilyer Abreu to 3rd. (inning 6) — +31% Red Sox
7Christian Yelich grounds into a force out, third baseman Caleb Durbin to second baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Sal Frelick scores. Blake Perkins to 3rd. David Hamilton out at 2nd. Christian Yelich to 1st.2–3
7David Hamilton hit by pitch. Joey Ortiz scores. Sal Frelick to 3rd. Blake Perkins to 2nd.1–3
6Caleb Durbin grounds out, second baseman David Hamilton to first baseman Gary Sánchez. Wilyer Abreu scores. Trevor Story to 3rd.0–3
6Trevor Story doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Lockridge. Jarren Duran scores. Willson Contreras scores. Wilyer Abreu to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































