Brewers at Red Sox
Last play · Brandon Lockridge flies out to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
MIL 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 0 – 3 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 47.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wilyer Abreu singles on a ground ball to shortstop Joey Ortiz, deflected by second baseman David Hamilton. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Andruw Monasterio to 3rd. Willson Contreras to 2nd. (inning 3) — +12% Red Sox
7Red Sox challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Caleb Durbin grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman David Hamilton. Wilyer Abreu scores. Trevor Story out at 2nd. Caleb Durbin to 1st.0–5
7Trevor Story singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Lockridge. Willson Contreras scores. Wilyer Abreu to 3rd.0–4
3Trevor Story out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Sal Frelick. Andruw Monasterio scores.0–3
3Wilyer Abreu singles on a ground ball to shortstop Joey Ortiz, deflected by second baseman David Hamilton. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Andruw Monasterio to 3rd. Willson Contreras to 2nd.0–2
3Willson Contreras walks. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 3rd. Andruw Monasterio to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































