Royals at Red Sox
Last play · Isaac Collins grounds out, second baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa to first baseman Nick Sogard.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
KC 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 1 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+183 / -225
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wilyer Abreu doubles (36) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder John Rave. Mickey Gasper scores. Adley Rutschman scores. (inning 6) — +31% Red Sox
8Nick Sogard doubles (13) on a line drive to center fielder John Rave. Trevor Story scores.1–5
7Caleb Durbin singles on a fly ball to left fielder Matthew Lugo. Nick Sogard scores. Caleb Durbin out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Matthew Lugo to second baseman Michael Massey.1–4
6Wilyer Abreu doubles (36) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder John Rave. Mickey Gasper scores. Adley Rutschman scores.1–3
6Carter Jensen homers (24) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
4Adley Rutschman singles on a ground ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Roman Anthony scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































