Brewers at Cubs
MIL9–
CHC5Last play · Seiya Suzuki grounds out, shortstop Cooper Pratt to first baseman Jake Bauers.
Win probability
Cubs0%
MIL 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 6 – 5 CHC
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-157 / +130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alex Bregman homers (24) on a line drive to left center field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. (inning 1) — +24% Cubs
9Joey Ortiz singles on a ground ball to left fielder Ian Happ. Luis Lara scores. Christian Yelich scores. Joey Ortiz to 2nd.9–5
7Cooper Pratt singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Christian Yelich scores.7–5
4William Contreras singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Brice Turang scores. Andrew Vaughn to 2nd.6–5
4Andrew Vaughn singles on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Jackson Chourio scores. Brice Turang to 2nd.5–5
4Brice Turang hits a sacrifice bunt. Cooper Pratt scores. Jackson Chourio to 3rd. Brice Turang to 1st.4–5
2Alex Bregman singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Luis Lara. Tyrone Taylor scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd. Alex Bregman to 2nd.3–5
2Tyrone Taylor singles on a line drive to right fielder Jake Bauers. Matt Shaw scores.3–3
2Jackson Chourio homers (21) on a fly ball to right center field.3–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.