Brewers at Cubs
Last play · Christian Yelich grounds out, second baseman Pedro Ramírez to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Cubs100%
MIL 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 1 – 2 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-121 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (39) on a fly ball to center field. Carson Kelly scores. (inning 3) — +23% Cubs
4Andrew Vaughn homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
3Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (39) on a fly ball to center field. Carson Kelly scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































