Padres at Reds
Last play · Jake Cronenworth strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds100%
SD 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 3 – 4 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-167 / +138
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Juan Brito homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Tyler Stephenson scores. Dane Myers scores. (inning 2) — +35% Reds
7JJ Bleday homers (22) on a fly ball to right field. Elly De La Cruz scores.3–7
6Matt McLain out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Dustin Harris. JJ Bleday scores. Dane Myers to 3rd.3–5
2Héctor Rodríguez homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.3–4
2Juan Brito homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Tyler Stephenson scores. Dane Myers scores.3–3
2Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. Austin Hays scores.3–0
1Ty France homers (20) on a fly ball to left field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































