Brewers at Reds
Last play · Gary Sánchez grounds out, shortstop Matt McLain to first baseman Sal Stewart.
Win probability
Reds100%
MIL 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 6 – 9 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-149 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Elly De La Cruz doubles (25) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Juan Brito scores. Héctor Rodríguez scores. Dane Myers to 3rd. (inning 5) — +25% Reds
9Brice Turang singles on a ground ball to right fielder JJ Bleday. Jake Bauers scores. Andrew Vaughn to 2nd.8–12
8Dane Myers singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jackson Chourio, deflected by third baseman David Hamilton. Juan Brito scores. Héctor Rodríguez scores.7–12
8Héctor Rodríguez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jake Bauers. Matt McLain scores. Juan Brito to 3rd. Héctor Rodríguez to 2nd.7–10
8Bo Naylor singles on a line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Brice Turang scores. Cooper Pratt to 2nd.7–9
5Tyler Stephenson singles on a ground ball to shortstop Cooper Pratt, deflected by third baseman David Hamilton. Dane Myers scores.6–9
5Elly De La Cruz doubles (25) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Juan Brito scores. Héctor Rodríguez scores. Dane Myers to 3rd.6–8
5Brice Turang doubles (31) on a line drive to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez. Jake Bauers scores. Garrett Mitchell scores.6–6
5Garrett Mitchell singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Jackson Chourio scores. Jake Bauers to 2nd.4–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































