Brewers at Reds
Last play · William Contreras flies out sharply to center fielder Dane Myers.
Win probability
Reds100%
MIL 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 2 – 2 CIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-156 / +129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt McLain homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 7) — +31% Reds
8Jose Trevino grounds out, shortstop Cooper Pratt to first baseman Andrew Vaughn.3–5
7Matt McLain homers (15) on a fly ball to right field.3–4
7Jackson Chourio out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Carlos Jorge. Cooper Pratt scores. Gary Sánchez to 3rd.3–3
6Tyler Stephenson homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.2–3
4Jose Trevino singles on a line drive to right fielder Luis Lara. JJ Bleday scores. Eugenio Suárez to 2nd.2–2
3Luis Lara grounds out to first baseman Sal Stewart. David Hamilton scores.2–1
1Elly De La Cruz homers (22) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
1William Contreras homers (14) on a line drive to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































