Blue Jays at Guardians
Last play · Angel Genao called out on strikes.
Win probability
Guardians0%
TOR 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 5 – 3 CLE
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Guardians favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathan Lukes doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Ernie Clement scores. Brandon Valenzuela scores. Brett Bateman to 3rd. (inning 5) — -28% Blue Jays
9Ernie Clement singles on a line drive to center fielder Steven Kwan. Josh Smith scores. Andrés Giménez to 3rd.6–3
5Austin Hedges singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brett Bateman. Jo Adell scores. Angel Genao scores. Daniel Schneemann to 2nd.5–3
5Jesús Sánchez singles on a fly ball to center fielder Steven Kwan. Nathan Lukes scores.5–1
5Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Brett Bateman scores. Nathan Lukes to 3rd.4–1
5Nathan Lukes doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Ernie Clement scores. Brandon Valenzuela scores. Brett Bateman to 3rd.3–1
4Sean Keys singles on a line drive to left fielder Jo Adell. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.1–1
3Angel Genao singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brett Bateman. Jo Adell scores. Nathaniel Lowe to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































