Orioles at Rockies
BAL2–
COL1Last play · Jake McCarthy flies out sharply to center fielder Colton Cowser.
Win probability
Rockies0%
BAL 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 1 – 1 COL
Tied through 5
Total runs
11
opened 11
fair over 52.3% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-156 / +129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Orioles challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Colton Cowser grounds into a force out, second baseman Connor Norby to shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. Coby Mayo scores. Samuel Basallo to 3rd. Blaze Alexander out at 2nd. Colton Cowser to 1st. (inning 7) — -19% Orioles
7Orioles challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Colton Cowser grounds into a force out, second baseman Connor Norby to shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. Coby Mayo scores. Samuel Basallo to 3rd. Blaze Alexander out at 2nd. Colton Cowser to 1st.2–1
5Samuel Basallo doubles (10) on a fly ball to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Dylan Beavers scores.1–1
4Jordan Beck singles on a line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Hunter Goodman scores. TJ Rumfield to 3rd. Jordan Beck to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.