Orioles at Rockies
Last play · Jackson Holliday flies out to right fielder Mickey Moniak.
Win probability
Rockies100%
BAL 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 1 – 2 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
11.5
opened 11.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-186 / +153
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · TJ Rumfield homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Mickey Moniak scores. (inning 7) — +31% Rockies
7TJ Rumfield homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Mickey Moniak scores.2–4
7Jackson Holliday homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.2–2
3Gunnar Henderson grounds into a double play, first baseman TJ Rumfield to shortstop Cole Carrigg to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Carlos Narváez scores. Pete Alonso out at 2nd. Gunnar Henderson out at 1st.1–2
2Jake McCarthy singles on a ground ball to center fielder Colton Cowser. Zac Veen scores.0–2
2Adael Amador homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































