Orioles at Rockies
Last play · Brett Sullivan singles on a line drive to left fielder Luis Robert Jr. TJ Rumfield scores. Adael Amador scores.
Win probability
Rockies100%
BAL 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 3 – 2 COL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
11.5
opened 11.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-186 / +153
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Samuel Basallo singles on a line drive to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Luis Robert Jr. scores. (inning 11) — -44% Orioles
11Brett Sullivan singles on a line drive to left fielder Luis Robert Jr. TJ Rumfield scores. Adael Amador scores.5–6
11TJ Rumfield singles on a line drive to left fielder Luis Robert Jr. Connor Norby scores.5–4
11Blaze Alexander singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Leody Taveras scores. Dylan Beavers to 2nd.5–3
11Samuel Basallo singles on a line drive to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Luis Robert Jr. scores.4–3
9Zac Veen doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Cole Carrigg scores.3–3
4Cole Carrigg singles on a ground ball to third baseman Coby Mayo. Hunter Goodman scores.3–2
3Orioles challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Jake McCarthy triples (8) on a line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Adael Amador scores. Jake McCarthy out at home, pitcher Trevor Rogers to catcher Samuel Basallo.3–1
3Luis Robert Jr. doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jordan Beck. Jackson Holliday scores. Pete Alonso scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































