Cardinals at Rockies
STL7–
COL10Last play · Leo Bernal lines out to right fielder Mickey Moniak.
Win probability
Rockies100%
STL 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 3 – 6 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 11
fair over 50.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Connor Norby singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Jake McCarthy scores. (inning 5) — +25% Rockies
9Iván Herrera singles on a ground ball to right fielder Mickey Moniak. José Fermín scores.7–10
9José Fermín doubles (15) on a line drive to center fielder Jake McCarthy. Thomas Saggese scores.6–10
7Zac Veen hits a sacrifice bunt. Hunter Goodman scores. Cole Carrigg to 2nd. Zac Veen to 1st.5–10
7Cole Carrigg singles on a fly ball to left fielder Joshua Báez. Connor Norby scores. Hunter Goodman to 3rd.5–9
7Hunter Goodman singles on a line drive to left fielder Joshua Báez. Ezequiel Tovar scores. Jake McCarthy scores. Connor Norby to 3rd. Hunter Goodman to 2nd.5–8
6Thomas Saggese out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jordan Beck. Joshua Báez scores. Nolan Gorman to 3rd.5–6
6Nolan Gorman doubles (6) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Jordan Beck. Leo Bernal scores. Joshua Báez to 3rd.4–6
5TJ Rumfield doubles (27) on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Connor Norby scores.3–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.