Cardinals at Rockies
Last play · Troy Johnston strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rockies0%
STL 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 7 – 5 COL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 11
fair over 50.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Gorman homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Joshua Báez scores. (inning 5) — -28% Cardinals
9Jake McCarthy singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Hunter Goodman scores. Zac Veen scores.10–8
8Jake McCarthy homers (15) on a fly ball to right field.10–6
8Alec Burleson singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Troy Johnston. Iván Herrera scores.10–5
8Iván Herrera doubles (25) on a line drive to right fielder Troy Johnston. Thomas Saggese scores. José Fermín scores.9–5
5Nolan Gorman homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Joshua Báez scores.7–5
5Joshua Báez singles on a line drive to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Jordan Walker scores. Leo Bernal scores. Joshua Báez to 3rd. Fielding error by center fielder Cole Carrigg.5–5
5Leo Bernal singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Troy Johnston. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson scores. Jordan Walker to 3rd.3–5
3Mickey Moniak homers (22) on a fly ball to center field. Cole Carrigg scores. TJ Rumfield scores.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































