Twins at Tigers
MIN4–
DET5Last play · Josh Bell grounds into a double play, shortstop John Peck to first baseman Spencer Torkelson. Kody Clemens out at 2nd. Josh Bell out at 1st.
Win probability
Tigers100%
MIN 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 2 – 5 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+101 / -122
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Walker Jenkins doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Max Clark. Trevor Larnach scores. Kaelen Culpepper scores. (inning 6) — -22% Twins
6Walker Jenkins doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Max Clark. Trevor Larnach scores. Kaelen Culpepper scores.4–5
5Riley Greene homers (19) on a fly ball to right field. Gleyber Torres scores.2–5
4Trevor Larnach homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.2–3
2Kevin McGonigle reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Royce Lewis. Max Clark scores. John Peck to 3rd. Colt Keith to 2nd. Throwing error by first baseman Royce Lewis.1–3
2Colt Keith hit by pitch. Zach McKinstry scores. Max Clark to 3rd. John Peck to 2nd.1–2
1Kevin McGonigle homers (15) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
1Ryan Jeffers reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop John Peck. Luke Keaschall scores. Brooks Lee to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.