D-backs at Astros
Last play · Tim Tawa strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
AZ 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 1 – 3 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-113 / -106
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yainer Diaz homers (11) on a line drive to left center field. (inning 3) — +15% Astros
4Gabriel Moreno homers (12) on a line drive to left center field.1–3
3Jose Altuve out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Max Kepler in foul territory. Yordan Alvarez scores.0–3
3Isaac Paredes doubles (25) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Max Kepler. Jeremy Peña scores. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd.0–2
3Yainer Diaz homers (11) on a line drive to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
































