Marlins at Royals
MIA9–
KC6Last play · Nick Loftin grounds out, pitcher Calvin Faucher to first baseman Kyle Stowers.
Win probability
Royals0%
MIA 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 4 – 6 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jared Serna out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Jakob Marsee scores. (inning 6) — -17% Marlins
9Jakob Marsee homers (9) on a line drive to right center field.9–6
9Javier Sanoja homers (7) on a line drive to left center field.8–6
6Heriberto Hernández doubles (16) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Griffin Conine scores.7–6
6Jared Serna out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Jakob Marsee scores.6–6
6Griffin Conine singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Javier Sanoja scores. Jakob Marsee to 3rd.5–6
5Heriberto Hernández hits a ground-rule double (15) on a fly ball to left-center field. Jared Serna scores. Joe Mack to 3rd.4–6
4Carter Jensen homers (21) on a fly ball to right field.3–6
3Kyle Stowers homers (18) on a fly ball to center field.3–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.